the market demand for vehicle hydrogen storage bottles is increasing rapidly, and the market competition in this field is also intensifying.
according to the research and statistics of the hydrogen and electricity research institute (ggii), in 2021, the chinese market shipped 4129 sets of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle hydrogen storage systems, an increase of 67.85% year-on-year; the shipment of vehicle hydrogen storage bottles was 30,284, an increase of 122.43% year-on-year. it is expected that in 2022, the domestic sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be 11,000, and the corresponding number of on-board hydrogen storage systems will reach 11,000 sets.
in this situation, car hydrogen storage bottle manufacturers are stepping up preparations, trying to upgrade technology, expand production capacity, build a deeper "moat". an invisible war has begun in the field of car hydrogen storage bottles.
the shipment volume has increased greatly, and the market prospect is broad
"in the first quarter of this year, the company received more than 200 orders for vehicle hydrogen supply systems, reaching more than half of last year's total sales." hou li-gong, sales director of cotek, said that since the beginning of this year, fuel cell vehicles equipped with cotek's on-board hydrogen storage system have served the beijing winter olympics, and the quality of products has been well received by customers.
companies with surging shipments of on-board hydrogen storage systems like cotek also include guofu hydrogen energy, shunhua new energy, tianhai industry, cimc anruike and so on. driven by the "hydrogen city demonstration", the expected growth in sales of fuel cell vehicles has also driven the demand for upstream on-board hydrogen storage systems.
from august to december 2021, the five largest hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration city clusters in china have landed, and the "hydrogen into 10,000" science and technology demonstration project in shandong province has been officially implemented. from the planning goals of each demonstration city cluster, by 2025, it is expected to promote more than 38,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. coupled with the promotion plan of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in other parts of the country, by 2025, the total number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in china will reach 66,000.
in summary, ggii expects that the number of domestic corresponding vehicle hydrogen storage systems will be 11,000 sets in 2022, an increase of 171.3% over the previous year; in 2025, the domestic demand for vehicle hydrogen storage systems will reach 37,000 units, with a compound annual growth rate (cagr) of 73% from 2021 to 2025. by 2030, the domestic demand for vehicle hydrogen storage systems will be 490,000 sets, with a cagr of 70% from 2021 to 2025.
if converted into hydrogen storage bottles, the demand for car-mounted hydrogen storage bottles in the chinese market in 2022 will be about 69,000 units, an increase of 127.7% year-on-year. by 2025, china's demand for vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage bottles will reach 230,000 units, with a cagr of 66% from 2021 to 2025; by 2030, china's demand for vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage bottles will be 2.24 million units, with a cagr of 61% from 2021 to 2030.
in this context, some enterprises have been ready to expand production.
"at present, the company has an annual production capacity of 40,000 hydrogen storage bottles, and the company is ready to expand production to meet more market demand in the future." hou lijun said that in the second half of the year, cotek plans to double its existing capacity.
new and old players pk, the competition is becoming increasingly fierce
in the domestic layout of vehicle hydrogen storage system enterprises, the market share is relatively concentrated. ggii research data show that the top three enterprises with market share from 2020 to 2021 are relatively stable, respectively, guofu hydrogen energy, shunhua new energy, and kotek. however, from the perspective of the share of different echelons in the market in the past three years, the market is gradually developing from centralized to decentralized.
ggii research data show that from 2019 to 2021, the domestic vehicle hydrogen storage system shipments of the first enterprise national hydrogen energy market accounted for 35% to 45%, slightly declining year by year. the second tier of enterprises, that is, the second to fifth enterprises in vehicle hydrogen storage system shipments, the total market share also fell from 53.83% in 2019 to 42.31% in 2021. the market share of the third tier enterprises has increased year by year, increasing to 19.76% by 2021. from the perspective of competition form, the market of the first two echelons of 2019 has gradually shifted to the market situation of the three echelons of enterprises.
in terms of hydrogen storage bottles, there is no change in the first three companies in 2020 and 2021, and the country's hydrogen energy market shipments in 2021 account for 35.63%, ranking first. due to the completion of the vehicle hydrogen storage bottle production line, sinoma technology will focus on the market in 2021, and its shipments will increase rapidly, ranking second. from the perspective of the market share of each echelon enterprise shipments, the market share of the second and third echelon enterprises has risen year by year, and market competition has gradually emerged.
in fact, not all companies involved in vehicle hydrogen storage systems can independently develop and produce hydrogen storage bottles, in order to share the cake of the car hydrogen storage market, many forces have begun to join the market competition.
players in the car hydrogen storage system market are mainly divided into five categories:
first, at this stage, the enterprise itself has the ability to integrate the vehicle hydrogen storage system and produce hydrogen storage bottles, such as guofu hydrogen energy, cotek, tianhai industry, cimc anric, sinoma technology and so on.
the second is that the enterprise does not produce hydrogen storage bottles, but has the ability to expand the market of vehicle hydrogen storage systems, such as shunhua new energy and landanda;
the third is that it does not produce hydrogen storage bottles, but has the integration ability of vehicle hydrogen storage system, and the market expansion ability is slightly weaker than that of other enterprises, which is mainly based on integrated vehicle hydrogen storage systems, such as starchi blue hydrogen and parihua hydrogen.
fourth, the enterprise produces on-board hydrogen storage bottles, but does not integrate on-board hydrogen storage systems, and has the ability to expand the market of on-board hydrogen storage systems, so the on-board hydrogen storage system business is outsourced to the integrated enterprise.
fifth, the enterprise is a hydrogen fuel cell reactor or system enterprise, and has carried out business expansion of vehicle hydrogen storage system.
in the layout of the core components of the car hydrogen storage system hydrogen storage bottle business enterprises, in addition to guofu hydrogen energy, kotek, tianhai industry, sinoma technology, silinda and other old players, in recent years, there have been new forces to join. in 2020, new cimc nantong will participate in the market competition; in 2021, the shipment of hydrogen storage bottles of aoyang technology exceeds the thousand level, and the market participants are increasing year by year, and the industry competition is becoming more intense.
the market of iv bottles is accelerating
at this stage, the domestic technology of type iii vehicle hydrogen storage bottle is more mature, the localization of key components such as valves and sensors is relatively high, and there is basically no development bottleneck, and the industry is expanding in the direction of type iv hydrogen storage bottle.
due to the characteristics of lightweight, high pressure, high hydrogen storage mass ratio and long life, the prospect is widely optimistic, at this stage, domestic enterprises are mainly divided into two ways of technology introduction and independent research and development to prepare for the mass production of type iv bottles.
in order to speed up the pace of technological development, some companies use technology introduction to get involved in the iv hydrogen storage bottle market, representative enterprises are cimc anric, vogyas linda and other enterprises. and guofu hydrogen energy, tianhai industry, sinoma technology, yapu shares, aoyang technology and other companies use self-developed methods to prepare for the mass production of type iv hydrogen storage bottles.
at this stage, the main factor limiting the market promotion of domestic car hydrogen storage bottles is the price. there are three main influencing factors: (1) technical maturity, mainly the length of the cycle of technology development from type iii bottles to type iv bottles (aluminum liner to plastic liner), and mass capacity; ② the price of raw materials, mainly the price of carbon fiber; ③ market demand and market competition.
with the maturity of 70mpa iv bottle production technology and the localization of upstream raw materials, its cost will rapidly decline, thus promoting the rapid growth of market demand and rapid expansion of scale. ggii believes that around 2030, 70mpa type iv hydrogen storage bottles are expected to achieve more than 90% replacement of 35mpa type iii bottles, and 100% replacement of 70mpa type iii bottles in passenger vehicles.
the localization of carbon fiber will play an important role in promoting the marketization of type iv vehicle hydrogen storage bottles.
in the first half of 2021, there was once a restriction on the import of carbon fiber in china, which led to the normal production and shipment of a considerable part of hydrogen storage bottle enterprises. with the expansion of production capacity of domestic carbon fiber enterprises such as zhongfu shenying and guangwei composites, this situation will improve in the future.
at present, china's largest carbon fiber supply in the field of vehicle hydrogen storage bottles is zhongfu shenying, its production base in lianyungang has an existing capacity of 3,500 tons, the company is building xining annual output of 10,000 tons of high-performance carbon fiber and supporting raw silk project, has been built and put into production line of 6,000 tons/annual capacity.
another domestic carbon fiber giant guangwei composite has begun to supply car hydrogen storage bottle enterprises.
"since the second half of last year, the company's core supplier of carbon fiber has been gradually switched from toray to guangwei composite, and the hydrogen storage bottles using domestic carbon fiber materials have completed relevant verification and been shipped." the market leader of a domestic hydrogen storage bottle company said that with the acceleration of the replacement of domestic carbon fiber, the problem of the shortage of core materials for domestic vehicle hydrogen storage bottles will also become history.